Dr. Francisco J. Larios

Chief Emerging Markets
Strategist/Economist

Decision Economics, Inc.

www.decisioneconomicsinc.com

Dr. Francisco Larios is Chief Economist for Emerging Markets at Decision Economics. He leads the Decision Economics EMG team in discovering and delivering key macroeconomic strategic and tactical information to Decision Economics' institutional investment and trading clients.

Before joining Decision Economics in August 2000, Dr. Larios was Senior Emerging Markets Economist in the World Markets group of Standard & Poor's DRI, with responsibility for forecasting macroeconomic conditions and analyzing investment risk in major emerging markets.

With advances in technology, small countries like Uruguay now have the chance to demonstrate their ability to compete in the global market by showing that they can not only distribute goods anywhere, but that those goods are high quality. According to Brazil’s Getulio Vargas Foundation, an independent think tank, Uruguay is ranked the top Latin American country in terms of the quality of its business environment. Uruguay’s Vice-President, Danilo Astori, Minister of State for Commerce and Industry, said, “Uruguay has the most advantageous position in terms of logistics and connectivity with the rest of Latin America.” Even other developing countries like India are reaching out to emerging Latin American markets and Uruguay is able to reciprocate. Historically, Uruguay has depended on its bigger neighbors for its economic health, but had to find a way to survive when Argentina defaulted on its debts and plunged into a deep recession in 2001 and 2002. Uruguay’s economy has traditionally been dependent on agriculture with services like meat processing, wood pulp, rice, soybeans and wheat comprising up to 70 percent of total exports. The GDP has continued to grow steadily among South American countries since 2007 as a result of diversification of the economic base. Growth can be seen in foreign investment, tourism and the information software industry because government policies make it easy for foreigners to transfer capital into the country. Uruguay is also a founding member of the MERCOSUR, the southern core common market that supports international trade. Like many other countries, Uruguay struggles to control inflation, but economy minister, Fernando Lorenzo said. “We have a firm commitment on the inflation target, which is between four percent and seven percent this year.” On the plus side, the country attracted a $1.9 billion pulp mill investment and numerous commercial banks have provided loans that support sustainable projects to reduce poverty, boost jobs and improve public sector efficiency. A newly discovered iron-ore deposit raises hope for mining and Uruguay is slated to be the next retail frontier along with Brazil and Chile. Uruguay essentially has a great future for potential investors. To find advantage with Uruguay, consider the following. Uruguay is now a major contender in the global market. Uruguay is a gateway to other South American markets. A magic mix of features makes Uruguay a great surprise market. Ties between Uruguay and India make for potent growth. Lastly, consider Uruguay for more than agricultural investment... retail is booming as well at IT and other sectors.